JAAOS - 2026-07-15 - Journal Article
Frailty as a Predictor of Outcomes in Surgically Treated Ankle Fractures: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Analysis Using the mFI-5.
Tummala S, Wood BA, Mittal MM, Sambandam SN, Wukich DK
Topics
Key Takeaway
Severely frail patients (mFI-5 ≥3) undergoing surgical ankle fracture fixation face a 5-year mortality rate of ~33% and a 7.9-fold increased risk of myocardial infarction within 90 days compared to nonfrail patients.
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Summary
This study used the TriNetX database to determine whether mFI-5-defined frailty predicts adverse outcomes in patients ≥50 years undergoing surgical ankle fracture fixation within one month of injury. Patients were stratified into nonfrail (mFI-5 0–1), moderately frail (mFI-5 2), and severely frail (mFI-5 ≥3) cohorts and propensity matched for age, sex, race, and BMI. Severely frail patients demonstrated dose-dependent increases in 90-day mortality (RR 3.311), sepsis (RR 4.790), and AKI (RR 4.697), and 5-year nonunion (RR 1.618), malunion (RR 1.659), and implant complications (RR 1.554), with an alarming 5-year all-cause mortality of approximately 33%.
Key Limitation
The exact matched cohort sizes are not reported, precluding assessment of statistical power, and the TriNetX database cannot confirm that coded diagnoses of nonunion or malunion meet validated radiographic or clinical definitions.
Original Abstract
Frailty is a critical determinant of surgical outcomes in adults; however, its influence on outcomes following surgically treated ankle fractures remains underinvestigated. This study evaluates whether preoperative frailty severity, measured using the 5-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5), serves as a reliable predictor of adverse outcomes in patients undergoing surgical management of ankle fractures. This retrospective cohort study used the TriNetX database to identify patients ≥50 years who underwent ankle fracture surgery within one month of injury. Patients were stratified by frailty into three cohorts using the mFI-5: nonfrail (0 to 1 comorbidities), moderately frail (2 comorbidities), and severely frail (≥3 comorbidities). Cohorts were propensity matched in 1:1 ratio for age, sex, race, and body mass index. Outcomes included 90-day medical/surgical complications, healthcare utilization, and two- and five-year mechanical/surgical complications. Relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Bonferroni-adjusted significance ( P < 0.0167). Frailty severity exhibited a dose-dependent relationship with complication risks. At 90 days, severely frail patients demonstrated markedly elevated risks for mortality (RR: 3.311), myocardial infarction (RR: 7.927), pneumonia (RR: 4.547), acute kidney injury (RR: 4.697), sepsis (RR: 4.790), anemia (RR: 1.389), transfusions, and falls compared with nonfrail individuals (all P < 0.0167). Moderately frail patients showed intermediate but markedly increased risks. At five years, severely frail patients experienced higher risks of delayed healing (RR: 1.340), nonunion (RR: 1.618), malunion (RR: 1.659), and implant complications (RR: 1.554). Alarmingly, the five-year mortality rate among severely frail patients reached approximately 33%, markedly exceeding other major orthopaedic procedures and common medical conditions. The mFI-5, a composite index of comorbidity burden and functional status, effectively stratifies patients by risk and is associated with markedly elevated short- and long-term morbidity, mortality, and healthcare utilization following surgical treatment of ankle fractures. Integrating such indices into routine preoperative evaluations may support targeted counseling, medical optimization, and enhanced postoperative management in high-risk patients undergoing ankle fracture surgery.